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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."