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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to electrify the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.

The Shift in Position & Closed Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Document and Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It includes only one reference to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost of 2018

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch to become leader but merely an effort to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Prudent Memory

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent of him to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.